|
|
Post by Harkovast on Sept 20, 2017 20:19:34 GMT
I think there are two ways to look at Trump's recent UN speech, but I am not sure which one is correct.
Read these two theories and tell me which one you think is more accurate.
1- Trump has a fragile ego and little understanding of interest in global politics. He is used to bullying and insulting to get his way and is trying to employ those tactics against North Korea.
The inevitable escalation of this is going to lead to all out war.
Whether this is Trump's goal or a side affect of his deranged methods, either way the result is the same and its unthinkable.
A reason it might be deliberate is that Trump's popularity is in the toilet and his base are getting frustrated at his incompetence.
The only time he has seen any boosts in his standing is when he did a military raid against terrorists (in which a US soldier died and its effectiveness is unclear.)
Americans will rally to the president in war time, so for a totally cynical, selfish asshole a war may be the perfect way to secure his own power and win a second term.
2- Trump is a blow hard that is full of hot air. He breaks his word so casually that it starts to seem unclear if he is even capable of holding a consistent opinion.
He is broken nearly every whacky promise he made to his supporters, so this is just another empty promise.
His claims of tough action are as meaningful as his promises to lock up Hillary, build a wall and block immigrants.
His dishonesty is matched only by his incompetence, as he has yet to claim a serious policy success despite republicans controlling all branches of government in America.
His empty words promising action are just noise and nothing more.
He will do nothing effective to stop North Korea who will continue their march to ever more powerful nuclear weapons on ever longer range missiles, until they can hold America ransom and render themselves untouchable.
So the conflict I have is basically-
Trump's Ego and Craziness VS Trump's Dishonesty and incompetence
And no, there isn't a good option here.
I think it was a bit optimistic if you expected one.
|
|
|
|
Post by Canuovea on Sept 20, 2017 21:32:13 GMT
Why not both?
|
|
|
|
Post by Harkovast on Sept 20, 2017 21:49:53 GMT
He can't start a war and also let the problem continue and do nothing about it.
He either will attack NK cause hes arrogant and stupid
or
hes lying and bullshitting and he wont do anything.
You gotta pick one!
The hardest choice of all, picking which of Trumps faults is the most significant one...
|
|
|
|
Post by Horsie on Sept 20, 2017 23:33:51 GMT
I think it's a bit of both as well.
He's got a fragile ego and he's in way over his head when it comes to global politics, but I doubt he's deliberately trying to start a war to boost his popularity. I really don't know if Trump could think even that far ahead, I think all he's doing is just trying to apply the bullying "tactics" he used all his life. I really don't think he's going to deliberately start a war, he's shown in the past that he's full of shit, he's made threats and not followed through on them. The real danger I think is if the North Koreans think the US is about to launch a pre-emptive attack; they'd have very little chance of launching any sort of retaliation, even against South Korea, so if they wanted to get a hit in on Seoul and the US bases in the south, they'd have to do it before the US attacked.
Although the good news is that the North Koreans themselves know just how fucked they'd be if they started a war. China has made it known (through a state-controlled paper) that they likely wouldn't come to Kim's aid if he attacked the US, and while US mightn't be able to wipe out the North Korean military in one blow (there's a lot of them, and they know how to dig tunnels), they could easily cripple them, that'd be the end of the regime, and the only real long-term goal of the North Korean regime is the survival of the regime.
|
|
|
|
Post by Harkovast on Sept 20, 2017 23:48:44 GMT
But which will prevail? Will Trump cause a war or will he let NK get weapons that could destroy America?
Obviously all those are aspects of his personality, but I am trying to figure out which aspect will guide decide his course and what will be the result.
I am 60% that he will just talk shit adn then let them gethte weapons...but I wouldn't want to put money on that.
Also while america and SK would definitely beat the north, NK has a ton of conventional artillery buried deep in the mountains that are in range of the SK capital.
In the opening of any conflict they could cause tens of thousands of casaulties.
There is no way to attack the north without a disaster.
|
|
|
|
Post by Harkovast on Sept 20, 2017 23:57:29 GMT
And yes I deliberately posted in such a way that you would think I was conflicted if I liked it or not to get you worried.
Seriously, that speech reminded me of Bush and the Axis of Evil speech.
And anyone whose been on here for long will know how much I HATE that shit.
I heard it described as "Axis of Evil on steroids", which kinda sums it up.
Also, calling Kim Rocket Man?
Its like he thinks hes still campaigning, like hes got to discredit his opponents. A fiend of mine observed that he was pausing like he was expecting applause like he did on the campaign trail.
I always got the impression Trump does things based on instinct, just saying what comes into his head at any given moment. He has an instinct for talking to people and dealing with them that worked for his campaign.
But hes only got one note so hes just doing the same stuff while talking to the UN, which makes him seem like hes going senile...which is entirely possible.
The guy holding rallies after already winning was weird, but now its like campaigning is basically his only skill so he just has to default to that no matter what the situation.
Its like someone who is good at passing job interviews, but then when they start trying to do the job they just start answering questions about what they can bring to the company or showing you their references.
And why the fuck was he having a go at Cuba? I thought relations were better with them now!
|
|
|
|
Post by Horsie on Sept 21, 2017 3:01:06 GMT
And they have a lot of chemical and biological weapons that can be deployed by their artillery too.
You're right Trump can only really give one kind of speech, it's like he went before the UN and gave a speech meant for his core supporters.
|
|
|
|
Post by Harkovast on Sept 24, 2017 21:53:40 GMT
Okay, being completely fair...
The current situation with North Korea was already fucked and Trump was handed a total mess when he took office.
Bush started this with is stupid Axis of Evil Speech (supposedly the refernce to North Korea was added so he wasn't purely bashing muslim countries...which if a war does start holy shit that's a stupid reason for it to kick off.)
Eventually he handed off to Obama, who spent 8 years ignoring North Korea and trying to push the problem under the carpet.
Now the thing that everyone kept saying would eventually happen is actually happening. North Korea are getting the missiles and getting the nukes and its inevitable they will soon have missiles able to attack all their enemies, even the USA.
Facing such a cluster fuck, even an incredibly skilled statesman would struggle to get North Korea to disarm without a war.
Of course in place of that Statesman we have Trump calling the North Korean leader names and promising to destroy his entire country.
So we might be in trouble.
|
|
|
|
Post by Horsie on Sept 24, 2017 22:43:07 GMT
There's really no way to have kept the North Koreans from getting nuclear weapons without a war, and I think we'll just have to accept that they have them, because there's no way to make them disarm without a war.
Like I said in an earlier post, the Koreans aren't likely to actually launch an attack with their new missiles and nukes, they know that it'd only spell the end of the regime, and no one at the top (not Kim, not his generals, none of the political elites) want that.
I read somewhere that the whole North Korean obsession with acquiring nuclear weapons and missiles is twofold; to tell everyone ho big their dick is, and to keep the US from overthrowing the regime. The North Koreans are terrified that the US is going to do something ranging from fomenting unrest and supporting an uprising, to a full scale invasion alongside South Korean forces (that's why they're so opposed to the South Korean/US annual military drills, they're afraid they'll be used to disguise preparation and deployment for an invasion).
Consider that Gaddafi had a nuclear program, and my understanding is that he gave it up in exchange for having Western sanctions lifted; when a major uprising turned into a civil war Gaddafi's forces were bombed by the US and defeated by US-backed rebels. Assad had a secret nuclear program that the Israelis claim to have shut down about 10 years ago when they bombed a suspected reactor under construction; Assad is now backed into a corner by US-back rebels. Saddam had pursued nuclear weapons, but his program never really got anywhere before being destroyed; later he was overthrown by a US invasion and hanged.
From the perspective of Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un, both terrified of the US, they look at that sort of stuff and conclude that if they don't have nuclear weapons, then US is going to get them eventually.
That's not to say that the North Koreans ought to have nuclear weapons, but I think at no point along the way was it really possible to stop them without doing serious damage South Korea, and more likely than not they aren't going to use them, because they have the sense to know that if they attacked the US they'd be hit with nuclear weapons in return, and their allies in China would wash their hands of them.
|
|
|
|
Post by Harkovast on Sept 24, 2017 22:58:22 GMT
Oh yeah from the NK point of view, nukes make perfect sense.
The way Libya was handled and the way America seems to be now tearing up the deal with Iran send a clear message that negociation is pointless. American deals on this issue aren't worth the paper they are written on regarding nukes.
There were chances to stop it getting this far, but they have been squandered and now Trump seems content to piss on the ruins.
So yeah, we will just have to live with a nuclear north korea, something 3 presidents have promised to never allow.
|
|
|
|
Post by Horsie on Sept 25, 2017 15:26:59 GMT
Well. I'm really not sure the North Koreans would go ahead and shoot down US bombers flying near the Korean Peninsula but outside of North Korean airspace, though who knows? It could be that they want to fuck with the normal US practice of flying bombers in the area as a show of force. Still, that dumbass Trump is in way over his head, now I'm starting to think there might be a war, and I wouldn't be entirely surprised if Trump started it because he didn't like being called names by the North Koreans.
|
|
|
|
Post by Harkovast on Sept 25, 2017 23:14:16 GMT
North Korea always talks crazy, but the rhetoric has clear increased a lot.
Personally insulting Kim has made it that Kimn can't back down now without looking like a little bitch.
Kim's whole image is a strong man who wont back down, adn Trump decided to call him out.
|
|
|
|
Post by Horsie on Sept 25, 2017 23:46:33 GMT
They've got that in common at least.
|
|
|
|
Post by Harkovast on Sept 26, 2017 0:20:05 GMT
Yeah I bet North Korea got a shock when the American president responded to their insane, over the top bullshit with insane over the top bullshit of their own. The rhetoric has become interchangeable.
Trump, get your own gimic!
|
|
|
|
Post by Horsie on Sept 26, 2017 0:36:05 GMT
Though even if you were given quotes without being told who said what, you could easily tell the difference; the North Korean stuff uses awkward English since it's not their first language, and they like to throw "dog" around, Trump's stuff schoolyard insults, and a lot of random capitalization, and often ends with a single word sentence using a small word. Sad! But it's amazing to see Trump sinking to Kim's level, I bet the North Koreans are loving it.  |
|
